Core Views - The optimal stock/bond allocation ratio differs between the US and China, with a 3/7 ratio favoring the US and a 1/9 ratio favoring China. The 1/9 ratio in China has historically outperformed the 3/7 ratio in terms of risk-adjusted returns [53][59] - Global perspective shows the opposite trend, with the 3/7 ratio being more favorable than the 1/9 ratio [53][59] - The 1/9 ratio in China is better at hedging risks and achieving stable returns, especially during the rapid development of "fixed income+" and FOF products [53][59] - The 3/7 ratio in the US has seen higher volatility than the 1/9 ratio in recent years due to rising US bond yields [53][59] Stock/Bond Allocation Analysis - The 1/9 ratio in China has lower volatility compared to the 3/7 ratio, with stock volatility at 12.36% and bond volatility at 1.31% [69] - The 1/9 ratio in China has a volatility of 1.54%, significantly lower than the 3/7 ratio's 3.75% [69] - In the US, the 1/9 ratio has a volatility of 3.59%, while the 3/7 ratio has a volatility of 5.05% [69] - Global stock volatility is currently at 16.59%, higher than the historical average of 14.83%, while global bond volatility is at 8.68%, significantly higher than the historical average of 5.30% [69] Capital Group's Market Share Analysis - Capital Group's market share in mixed funds increased significantly from 10% in 1999 to over 20% by 2004, peaking at nearly 25% in 2007 [4] - From 2008 to 2013, Capital Group's market share declined from 24.3% to 17.5%, but rebounded after 2014, reaching over 30% by 2023 [4] - The top five mixed fund products in the market saw a 10% narrowing in market share from 2007 to 2014, primarily due to Capital Group's decline [4] - Capital Group's three core mixed fund products (ABALX, CAIBX, AMECX) contributed to its market share growth from 1999 to 2004, but their contribution to the second wave of market share growth after 2013 was limited [8][10] New Product Development - Capital Group launched five new mixed fund products in 2012, including the "529 College Savings Plan," which diversified its product matrix [8] - The size of these new products grew from 57.78 billion by 2023, contributing to a 3.1% increase in market share [151] - Target-date products became a new driver of Capital Group's market share growth from 2013 to 2023, with their market share increasing from 1.19% in 2014 to 7.75% by 2023 [152] Industry Trends - The US mixed fund market has seen a trend of concentration, with the top five companies (Capital Group, Vanguard, Fidelity, T Rowe Price, BlackRock) holding a combined market share of 73.29% [162] - Capital Group holds a 30.8% market share in the mixed fund market excluding target-date products, followed by Vanguard at 17.2% and Fidelity at 7.5% [162] - Overseas mixed funds that outperform stock/bond benchmarks tend to have higher exposure to developed market equities, and the development of university savings plan products has also contributed to scale expansion [51]
多元资产比较系列（七）：寻找股债配比的黄金分割点
国信证券·2024-04-29 15:30