ZJHTC(600895) 开源证券·2024-04-29 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5]. Core Views - The company reported significant revenue growth driven by the sales of industrial space, but fair value changes negatively impacted performance. The rental business remains stable, and the company continues to enhance its industrial investment efforts. Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are maintained, with expected net profits of 1.125 billion, 1.334 billion, and 1.461 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.73, 0.86, and 0.94 yuan [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 980 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 295.5%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 119 million yuan, a decline of 39.9%. The operating cash flow was negative at -1.817 billion yuan, down 118.8% year-on-year. The sales net profit margin dropped from 80.6% to 12.2% due to a decrease in gross profit margin and significant declines in fair value changes of financial assets [6][7]. Sales and Leasing Performance - The company recorded rental income of 248 million yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. The total leased area reached 1.462 million square meters by the end of March 2024. The sales area was 24,300 square meters, generating sales revenue of 726 million yuan, marking a significant increase compared to Q1 2023 when no sales were recorded [7][8]. Investment and Financing - The company has effectively promoted industrial development through a combination of direct investment, funds, and incubation. In Q1 2024, investment income from joint ventures was -100 million yuan, compared to 133 million yuan in Q1 2023. The company completed 52 direct investment projects in 2023 with a total investment of 3.86 billion yuan. Financing remains smooth, with the issuance of 1 billion yuan in medium-term notes at a low interest rate of 2.57% in April 2024 [8][9]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s financial forecasts indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years. Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.295 billion, 2.514 billion, and 2.657 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.125 billion, 1.334 billion, and 1.461 billion yuan. The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 57.4% to 58.3% during this period [9][10].