Huachuang Securities·2024-04-29 16:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600) with a target price of 105 CNY, while the current price is 79.31 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance slightly exceeded expectations, driven by cost reductions and structural upgrades despite a high base effect from the previous year [2]. - The report highlights that the trend of upgrading product structure remains intact, with premium brands showing resilience and growth [2]. - The anticipated continuation of cost benefits is expected to enhance performance in subsequent quarters, particularly in Q3 due to lower base effects and potential catalysts from sports events [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, Qingdao Beer achieved total revenue of 10.15 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.6 billion CNY, up 10.1% year-on-year [2]. - The company sold 2.184 million kiloliters of beer in Q1 2024, a decrease of 7.6% year-on-year, attributed to last year's post-pandemic consumption surge [2]. - The average price per ton increased by 2.6% to 4,647.4 CNY per kiloliter, indicating a positive trend in pricing despite volume pressures [2]. - The gross profit margin improved by 2.1 percentage points to 40.4%, supported by lower costs of barley and packaging materials [2]. - The report projects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 3.71, 4.28, and 4.91 CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 21, 19, and 16 times [3][2]. Market Position and Strategy - Qingdao Beer is positioned as a market leader with strong brand power and solid channel operations, allowing it to benefit from the ongoing premiumization trend in the beer industry [2]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to maintain a robust pricing strategy and cost management, which are crucial for sustaining profitability amid competitive pressures [2].