区间交易或将继续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company [2][10]. Core Views - The target price has been adjusted down to Rmb33.00, based on an 18x multiple of the projected earnings for 2024 [4][10]. - The company's Q4 2023 performance met expectations, while Q1 2024 results fell short, but guidance for Q2 2024 aligns with expectations [4][5]. - The report anticipates continued range trading for the stock, with investor focus on Apple's product cycles and profitability [4][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Q4 2023 revenue was Rmb760 billion, showing a 31% quarter-on-quarter increase and an 11% year-on-year increase [4][5]. - Q1 2024 revenue reached Rmb524 billion, a 31% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 5% increase year-on-year [4][5]. - Net profit for Q4 2023 was Rmb36 billion, while Q1 2024 net profit was Rmb25 billion, reflecting a 31% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 22% increase year-on-year [4][5]. - The company expects net profit for Q2 2024 to be between Rmb27.56 billion and Rmb29.74 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of approximately 18% to 27% [4][5]. Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024 and 2025 are Rmb250.23 billion and Rmb287.85 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8% and 15% [4][8]. - Projected net profits for 2024 and 2025 are Rmb13.51 billion and Rmb17.45 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23% and 29% [4][8]. - The diluted earnings per share are expected to be Rmb1.93 for 2024 and Rmb2.49 for 2025 [4][8]. Market Position and Outlook - The report expresses caution regarding the demand for Apple products in 2024, expecting the company's business to remain flat year-on-year [4][5]. - Positive growth is anticipated in the company's share of iPhone assembly and AirPods production [4][5]. - The automotive sector is expected to see significant growth, with a 50% year-on-year increase in deliveries in 2023 [4][5].