低成本增储上产，业绩表现超预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 29.97 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance with low-cost production and increased reserves, exceeding expectations. The net production of oil and gas reached approximately 680 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2023, marking an 8.7% year-on-year increase, and continued to grow in Q1 2024 [4][5]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong competitive position due to low oil production costs and robust capital expenditures, which are projected to support reserve additions and production growth [4][5]. - The company has a solid cash flow and a commitment to shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 43.6% in 2023 [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2022A: 422,230 million CNY - 2023A: 416,609 million CNY (yoy -1%) - 2024E: 460,009 million CNY (yoy +10%) - 2025E: 490,495 million CNY (yoy +7%) - 2026E: 515,320 million CNY (yoy +5%) [2]. - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2022A: 141,700 million CNY - 2023A: 123,843 million CNY (yoy -13%) - 2024E: 150,169 million CNY (yoy +21%) - 2025E: 154,485 million CNY (yoy +3%) - 2026E: 160,464 million CNY (yoy +4%) [2]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: 2.60 CNY - 2024: 3.16 CNY - 2025: 3.25 CNY - 2026: 3.37 CNY [2]. - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023: 19% - 2024E: 18% - 2025E: 16% - 2026E: 14% [2]. - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2024E: 9.5 - 2025E: 9.2 - 2026E: 8.9 [2]. - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: - 2024E: 1.7 - 2025E: 1.5 - 2026E: 1.3 [2]. Key Events - The company reported a revenue of 1,114.7 million CNY in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, and a net profit of 397.2 million CNY, up 23.7% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company achieved a net production of approximately 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q1 2024, reflecting a 9.9% year-on-year increase [4][5]. - The company’s capital expenditures for 2023 were 129.6 billion CNY, a 26.4% increase year-on-year, with Q1 2024 capital expenditures at approximately 29 billion CNY, up 17.3% year-on-year [4][5].