Guoxin Securities·2024-04-30 02:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [9] Core Views - The report highlights stable revenue growth, with a year-on-year decline in net profit. In Q1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 219.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, consistent with the growth rate from the previous year's annual report. The net interest income for the same period was 161.4 billion yuan, down 4.2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 87.7 billion yuan, a decline of 2.8% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown of 3.8 percentage points compared to the previous year's annual report [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Total assets grew by 13.2% year-on-year to 47.6 trillion yuan as of the end of Q1 2024. Deposits increased by 9.5% to 35.0 trillion yuan, and total loans rose by 11.6% to 27.4 trillion yuan. The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 13.78%, the Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 15.18%, and the total capital adequacy ratio was 19.21%, all meeting regulatory requirements. The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increased by 0.06 percentage points from the beginning of the year [9]. - The average net interest margin for Q1 2024 was 1.48%, down 29 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to the tail effect of last year's sequential decline in net interest margin. However, it showed a slight increase of 4 basis points compared to the previous quarter [9]. - Net fee income decreased by 2.8% year-on-year to 39.3 billion yuan, but the decline was narrower compared to the previous year's annual report, aligning with the overall industry trend [9]. - Asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan balance of 370 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2024, an increase of 17.4 billion yuan from the end of the previous year. The non-performing loan ratio was 1.36%, unchanged from the end of the previous year, and the provision coverage ratio was 216%, up 2 percentage points from the end of the previous year [9]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains the profit forecast, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 366.5 billion, 375.5 billion, and 392.0 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.7%, 2.5%, and 4.4% respectively. The diluted EPS is projected to be 0.99, 1.01, and 1.06 yuan for the same period. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 5.5, 5.3, and 5.1 times, and a PB ratio of 0.53, 0.49, and 0.46 times, maintaining a "Buy" rating [9].