LZLJ(SZ:000568) Tai Ping Yang·2024-04-30 02:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao with a target price of 216.7, compared to the last closing price of 189.00 [1][6]. Core Views - Luzhou Laojiao's performance for 2023 met expectations, with a revenue of 30.233 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.34%, and a net profit of 13.246 billion, up 27.79% year-on-year. The Q4 2023 revenue was 8.291 billion, showing a 9.1% increase year-on-year, while the net profit for the same period was 2.68 billion, up 24.78% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, revenue reached 9.188 billion, a 20.74% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 4.574 billion, up 23.2% year-on-year [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Luzhou Laojiao's mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor segments generated revenues of 26.841 billion and 3.235 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 21.28% and 22.87%. Sales volume increased by 1.24% and 19.64%, while average prices rose by 19.79% and 2.7% respectively. The nationalization of Guojiao has progressed steadily, with annual growth expected to exceed 20% [4][6]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 88.30%, an increase of 1.71 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of high-end liquor and price increases. The net profit margin improved to 43.95%, a historical high, reflecting a 2.52 percentage point increase year-on-year [5][6]. Future Outlook - For 2024, the company aims for a revenue growth target of no less than 15%. Q1 2024 showed strong performance with double-digit growth in product sales during the Spring Festival, and the company plans to continue enhancing channel potential and network space [4][6]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 to be 10.83, 13.03, and 15.24 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17x, 14x, and 12x. The target price is based on a 22x PE for 2024 earnings [6][7].