ZPEC(SH:603619) Minsheng Securities·2024-04-30 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Zhongman Petroleum (603619.SH) [2][7]. Core Views - In 2023, Zhongman Petroleum achieved operating revenue of 3.732 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million yuan, up 67.88% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2024, the company reported a decline in revenue and net profit compared to the same period last year [2]. - The exploration and development business saw increased production volumes but decreased prices. The company successfully expanded its resource layout through both internal growth and acquisitions, including a 51% stake in Xinhuaxia Dubai [2]. - The oil service business showed a significant recovery in profitability, with a gross profit of 156 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 300% [2]. - The report forecasts that the global oil price will stabilize at a high level due to insufficient capital expenditure and tight supply-demand dynamics, which, combined with the company's growth potential and integrated cost advantages, supports the positive outlook for the company's earnings [2]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported a gross margin of 72.67% in its exploration and development business, despite a decline of 8.53 percentage points due to falling international oil prices [2]. - The projected net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is expected to be 1.084 billion yuan, 1.363 billion yuan, and 1.651 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.71 yuan, 3.41 yuan, and 4.13 yuan [4][13]. - The company’s PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 10, 8, and 6 times, respectively [4][13].