Our FY24 forecasts still on track post 1Q24

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for BYD with a target price of HK$262.00, indicating a potential upside of 21.1$216.40 [3][7]. Core Insights - Despite a net profit of RMB 4.6 billion in 1Q24 falling short of prior forecasts due to significant R&D spending of RMB 10.6 billion, BYD is still expected to meet the FY24E net profit forecast of RMB 33 billion [7]. - The report highlights that BYD's gross profit margin (GPM) in 1Q24 was better than expected, suggesting that price cuts implemented in February 2024 could be offset by cost reductions from suppliers [7]. - The forecast for FY24 sales volume growth of 20% remains achievable, supported by recent stimulus measures and overseas expansion [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB 700,048 million, with expected growth to RMB 800,518 million in FY25E and RMB 884,971 million in FY26E [5][10]. - Net profit estimates for FY24E are RMB 33,109 million, increasing to RMB 40,173 million in FY25E and RMB 45,095 million in FY26E [5][10]. - The gross margin is projected to be 20.1% for FY24E, slightly decreasing to 19.5% in FY25E and 19.3% in FY26E [5][10]. Earnings and Valuation - The report indicates that BYD's earnings quality has not been prioritized in 1Q24, with expectations for more disciplined management of SG&A and R&D expenses in upcoming quarters [7]. - The net profit per vehicle in 1Q24 was RMB 7,300, which is lower than the previous quarter, reflecting the impact of price cuts on profitability [7]. - The report maintains FY24-25E net profit estimates largely unchanged while revising up both GPM and SG&A [7].