2023/1Q24业绩强劲增长，重点关注原料药和创新业务，上调目标价

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 40.00, indicating a potential upside of 23.5% from the current price of RMB 32.40 [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported strong growth in Q1 2024, with revenue of RMB 214.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 23.7 billion, up 43.8% year-on-year. The revenue and profit growth rates for Q4 2023 were 12.0% and 61.9%, respectively [1][2]. - The company is focusing on its raw materials and innovative business segments, with a notable increase in sales efficiency and a decrease in sales expenses [1]. - The company has announced a dividend of RMB 12.7 billion for 2023, maintaining a payout ratio of 51.8%, and expects to maintain a payout ratio of 40-60% over the next three years [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 214.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7%. The projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 232 billion, reflecting a 2-3% upward revision [2][4]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 2.456 billion, with a projected increase to RMB 2.854 billion in 2024, representing a 17-19% upward revision [2][4]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to improve, with projections of 52.06% for 2024, up from 51.21% in the previous forecast [5]. Segment Performance - The intravenous infusion segment grew by 7%, with sales volume increasing by 10.6% to 4.38 billion bags. The company expects sales to reach 4.7-4.8 billion bags in 2024 [1]. - The intermediate and raw materials segment saw a year-on-year growth of 23.8%, driven by both volume and price increases [1]. - Revenue from R&D projects confirmed at RMB 15.5 billion, with additional milestone income expected from collaborations [1]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued strong performance in its core raw materials and intermediates, with demand and prices remaining high [1]. - The projected revenue growth for 2024-2026 is expected to be 11% and 14% CAGR, respectively, with a target price based on DCF valuation indicating a 24% potential upside [2][6].