GF SECURITIES·2024-04-30 03:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of Postal Savings Bank [3]. Core Views - Postal Savings Bank's Q1 2024 report shows revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.4%, -6.1%, and -1.3% year-on-year, respectively, with changes of -0.82pct, 0.93pct, and -2.57pct compared to 2023 [2]. - Key highlights include stable asset and liability expansion, with interest-earning assets growing by 11.0% year-on-year, and a robust asset quality with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.84% [2]. - The report indicates a narrowing net interest margin of 1.92%, down 9bp from 2023, but expects stabilization due to effective cost management [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue growth was 1.4%, with a decline in PPOP and net profit attributable to shareholders by 6.1% and 1.3% respectively [2][9]. - The bank's net interest margin decreased to 1.92%, while the cost-to-income ratio increased by 3.4pct year-on-year [2][9]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.84%, with a slight increase of 1bp from the previous year, and a provision coverage ratio of 326.87% [2][9]. - The new non-performing loan generation rate was 0.57%, up 24bp year-on-year, indicating potential future risk exposure [2][9]. Loan and Deposit Growth - Loans grew by 11.80% year-on-year, with corporate loans increasing by 18% and personal loans by 10.18% [2][9]. - Deposits increased by 10.48% year-on-year, with a notable contribution from short-term deposits [2][9]. Profitability Forecast - The bank expects net profit growth of 1.9% and 2.3% for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with EPS projected at 0.83 and 0.85 yuan per share [2][9]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 5.69X for 2024 and 5.56X for 2025, with a reasonable value estimate of 7.30 yuan per share [2][9].