Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 19.50, indicating a potential upside of 0.5% from the current closing price of HKD 19.40 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a revenue growth of 6.7% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, reaching RMB 5.73 billion. Net profit increased by 48.6% year-on-year but decreased by 3.9% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 758.6 million, which was 5% higher than forecasts due to lower expenses and a reversal of impairment losses [1][2]. - In April, glass prices rose by 3% following a rapid inventory reduction in March, although inventory levels began to increase again in the latter half of the month due to reduced production rates from some component manufacturers [2]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in profit margins in Q2, but a decline in the second half of the year is expected due to limited valuation attractiveness at present [2]. Financial Overview - Q1 2023 revenue was RMB 5.73 billion, with a net profit of RMB 758.6 million, reflecting a net profit margin of 13.2% [1][5]. - The company’s financial projections indicate revenue growth from RMB 21.52 billion in 2023 to RMB 34.81 billion by 2026, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 2.76 billion to RMB 5.35 billion over the same period [4][8]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 22.4% in 2023 to 23.5% in 2024, while the net profit margin is expected to increase from 12.8% in 2023 to 15.4% in 2026 [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a rapid increase in new production capacity, with 8,300 tons coming online since March, leading to an expected oversupply in the second half of the year [2]. - The report notes that the average prices for photovoltaic glass have decreased by 9% and 3% for 2.0mm and 3.2mm glass respectively, although cost reductions from lower soda ash prices have helped maintain margins [1][2].
1季度业绩略超预期，4月玻璃价格上涨但去库存告一段落