Gaotu(US:GOTU) GF SECURITIES·2024-04-30 03:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of $8.12 per ADS, reflecting a valuation of 3.5x PS for 2024 [5][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 925 million in Q1 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 30.8%, aligning with the guidance range of 28.4-31.2% provided in Q4 2023 [3]. - Collection revenue is projected to reach RMB 698 million, with a year-over-year increase of 29.5%, driven by strong K12 user acquisition. Adjusting for the timing of the Spring Festival, the collection growth rate could be as high as 70% [3]. - Non-academic training revenue is anticipated to grow significantly, with K12 revenue share increasing. Non-academic training revenue is expected to be RMB 197 million, up 55% year-over-year, accounting for 21% of total revenue [3]. - The report forecasts a decline in gross margin due to a higher proportion of lower-margin courses and offline expansion, with an expected gross margin of 71.3% for Q1 [3]. - The company is projected to incur a Non-GAAP net loss of RMB 5.48 million in Q1, despite revenue growth and optimized sales expenses [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 4.25 billion in 2024 to RMB 6.83 billion in 2026, with growth rates of 43%, 31%, and 23% respectively [3]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 54 million, RMB 90 million, and RMB 117 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth of 6%, 67%, and 29% [3]. - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 2.96 billion, with a growth rate of 18.52% compared to 2022 [4].