2024财年4季度业绩超预期，利润转正

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TAL Education Group (TAL US) with a target price of $15.50, indicating a potential upside of 16.1% from the current price of $13.35 [1][2]. Core Insights - TAL Education Group reported better-than-expected performance for Q4 FY2024, with revenues of $430 million, a year-on-year increase of 60%, surpassing both internal and Bloomberg consensus estimates of 45% and 44% respectively [1][5]. - The strong revenue growth was driven by robust demand for quality education training and excellent sales performance of new learning devices, with a gross margin of 53% remaining stable year-on-year [1][5]. - Adjusted operating profit reached $9 million, with an operating margin of 2.2%, significantly improving from expected losses of $18 million [1][5]. Revenue Breakdown - Learning services revenue grew over 50% year-on-year, accounting for more than 40% of total revenue, primarily due to strong offline tutoring growth and rapid expansion of teaching centers, which reached 300-350 locations [1][5]. - Content solutions revenue more than doubled, driven by sales of learning devices, with approximately 100,000 units sold in Q4, exceeding the previous expectation of 80,000 units [1][5]. - The average selling price of new devices increased by 40%, contributing significantly to revenue growth [1][5]. Future Outlook - For Q1 FY2025, revenue is expected to grow by 42% year-on-year to $391 million, with tutoring services projected to increase by over 60% and content solutions by 85% [1][5]. - The company anticipates a narrowing of adjusted operating losses by 5 percentage points year-on-year to -7% due to improved R&D and marketing efficiency [1][5]. - For FY2025, total revenue is projected to grow by over 60%, driven by a 30%+ expansion in tutoring centers and an 80%+ increase in learning device-related revenue, leading to an overall revenue forecast of $2 billion [1][6]. Valuation Metrics - The current price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 24x for FY2025/26, which is in line with the industry average [1][6]. - The report suggests a target price based on a 20x P/E for education services and a 1x P/S for learning device business, maintaining the target price of $15.50 [1][6].