社会服务 社会服务 2026 年 03 月 22 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 社会服务 沪深300 相关研究报告 《中东局势或利好中国香港地产持续 复苏，多特倍斯 2 月仍保持高增—行 业周报》-2026.3.15 《中国香港房价及租金回暖，市场维 持美国年内两次降息预期—行业周 报》-2026.3.8 《体验与首店经济驱动高端商业体， 三丽鸥上修全年预期—行业周报》 -2026.3.1 | 初敏（分析师） | 李睿娴（分析师） | 程婧雅（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | chumin@kysec.cn | liruixian@kysec.cn | chengjingya@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书编号：S0790525020004 | 证书编号：S0790525070010 | liruixian@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525020004 chengjingya@kysec.cn 证书编号：S07905 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 景气提升叠加政策扶持，教育行业重归成长 2026年教育行业春季投资策略 证券分析师：黄哲 A0230513030001 2026.3.17 2026年教育指数跑赢基准指数 -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 教育指数 民办高职教 K12课外培训 恒生中国企业指数 教育指数跑赢恒生国企指数 教育重点公司涨幅（数据截止2026.3.12） | 证券代码 | | 证券简称 | 2026 1 1- . . 2026 3 12 | 市值（亿港 | 所属领域 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | . . 涨跌幅 | 元 ） | | | 1773 . | HK | 天立教育 | 2% | 50 | K12学校 | | 1890 . | HK | 中国科培 | 2% | 26 | 高教/职教 | | 0382 | HK . | 中汇集团 | 0% | 17 | 高教/职教 | | TAL | N . | 好未来 | -1% | 516 | K12教培 | | 6169 . ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the overseas pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance compared to the overall market [5][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the pharmaceutical sector, including a licensing agreement between China National Pharmaceutical Group (Sinopharm) and Sanofi for the JAK/ROCK inhibitor, and the approval of a new indication for Innovent Biologics' BTK inhibitor in China [1][2]. - Performance forecasts for companies such as Crystal Holding and He Yu indicate substantial revenue growth, with Crystal Holding expected to achieve at least 780 million RMB in revenue for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 193% [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Pharmaceuticals - Sinopharm and Sanofi have entered into an exclusive licensing agreement for the global development, production, and commercialization of the JAK/ROCK inhibitor, with potential milestone payments totaling up to 1.395 billion USD [2][7]. - Innovent Biologics' BTK inhibitor, Jiepalit (Pirtobrutinib), has received NMPA approval for a new indication in adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) who have previously undergone systemic treatment [2][7]. - Roche's BTK inhibitor Fenebrutinib has successfully met primary endpoints in a Phase III trial for relapsing multiple sclerosis, potentially becoming the first effective oral treatment for both relapsing and primary progressive forms of the disease [3][8]. 2. Performance Updates - Crystal Holding anticipates a revenue of no less than 780 million RMB in 2025, with a net profit of at least 100 million RMB, marking a turnaround from losses [6][7]. - He Yu expects to achieve 612 million RMB in revenue for 2025, reflecting a 21% year-on-year growth, with net profit projected at 55 million RMB, a 95% increase [6][7]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative pharmaceutical companies with active commercialization and business development opportunities, including companies like BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others [10]. - It also highlights the importance of monitoring clinical progress in key pipelines for companies transitioning towards innovation [10].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that 2025 will be a pivotal year for smart education in China, driven by advancements in Generative AI (GenAI) technologies, which are expected to reshape educational productivity and delivery methods [1][7] - The report highlights a 40/60 split in education, where 40% of educational tasks can be automated by technology, while 60% remains the domain of human educators, focusing on emotional engagement and complex problem-solving [2][5] Group 1: Technological Impact on Education - GenAI technology is expected to bring significant changes in educational information forms, tool applications, spatial scenarios, and organizational structures, aiming for scalable personalized supply and quantifiable teaching outcomes [3][7] - The report identifies that GenAI will transform static teaching information into dynamic interactive agents, evolve efficiency tools into cognitive partners, and shift rigid classroom structures into flexible human-machine collaborative networks [3][7] Group 2: Market Growth and Projections - The Chinese AI industry is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.1% from 2025 to 2029, with the market size expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2029 [7] - The education information technology budget in China is expected to grow steadily, reaching approximately 551.5 billion yuan in 2025 and 680.2 billion yuan by 2028, with GenAI-related procurement demand significantly increasing from the second half of 2025 [10] Group 3: GenAI in C-end Education Market - By the end of 2025, the user base for Generative AI in China is expected to reach 602 million, a 141.7% increase from 2024, with a penetration rate of 42.8% [12][13] - The C-end education market is projected to reach a total scale of approximately 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025, with GenAI products covering 15-20% of adult education and 10-15% of K12 education [15][18] Group 4: Procurement Trends in Educational Institutions - In ordinary universities, GenAI-related procurement projects account for about 27% of total educational information technology purchases, with a focus on smart teaching and campus services [21][24] - Vocational colleges show a higher concentration of GenAI projects, with 35% of procurement needs related to smart teaching and subject training [27][30] Group 5: Parental Attitudes and Market Dynamics - Parents exhibit a cautious yet positive attitude towards GenAI, recognizing its potential benefits while expressing concerns about over-reliance and reduced interpersonal interactions among children [54][60] - The introduction of GenAI is reshaping parental education spending, transitioning from traditional high-investment strategies to more efficient AI-driven solutions [57][66]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the overseas social services industry is positive, with a focus on the record-high visitor numbers during the Macau Spring Festival [6]. Group 2: Core Insights - The total number of inbound visitors to Macau during the Spring Festival reached 1.554 million, with an average daily visitor count of 173,000, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [6][1]. - Among the inbound visitors, mainland tourists averaged 134,000 per day, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth, while international visitors averaged nearly 7,900 per day, up by 8% [6][1]. - The hotel occupancy rate during the Spring Festival was 95.6%, with the highest rate of 99.2% recorded on the fourth day of the festival [6][1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Sections Overseas Pharmaceuticals - The report highlights significant developments in the pharmaceutical sector, including the announcement of clinical trial results for B7-H3 ADC by Yingensheng and the completion of Phase II trials for UBT251 by Lianbang Pharmaceutical [3][10]. - In 2025, BeiGene reported revenues of $5.343 billion, a 40% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profits reached $917 million, marking a return to profitability [9][21]. - The report also notes that the average weight loss in the UBT251 trial was as high as 19.7% after 24 weeks, compared to a 2.0% loss in the placebo group [11][10]. Overseas Education - The vocational education sector is experiencing an upswing, with promising enrollment data, particularly for China Oriental Education [5][17]. - The education index saw a decline of 4.9% in the recent week, underperforming the Hang Seng National Enterprises Index by 2.1 percentage points [15]. - The report recommends focusing on China Oriental Education, which is expected to see accelerated enrollment growth due to its strategic adjustments in response to market demands [17][15].

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market opened mixed with the Dow Jones up by 0.38%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices were down by 0.24% and 0.04% respectively. As of the report, the Dow Jones was up by 0.27%, the Nasdaq down by 0.84%, and the S&P 500 down by 0.36% [2] - A total of 2,712 stocks rose while 2,381 stocks fell [2] Company Specifics - Nvidia's earnings report exceeded expectations but received a lukewarm response, leading to a stock price drop of over 3.6% [2] - Major Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with BeiGene down by 6.56%, Beike down by 5.85%, Baidu down by 4.83%, and Luckin Coffee down by 4.71% [3][4] - Baidu reported a year-over-year revenue decrease of 3% for the fiscal year 2025 [3] Commodity Market - International silver prices continued to decline, with COMEX silver futures dropping over 5% and spot silver down by over 3%. As of the report, COMEX silver futures were down by 4.6% and spot silver by 2.55% [7] - Gold prices also saw a slight drop, with COMEX gold futures falling by over 1% [7] Geopolitical Developments - The third round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S. began in Geneva, focusing on nuclear issues. Iran expressed readiness to engage in discussions regarding sanctions and nuclear rights [9][10] - The outcome of these negotiations could significantly impact regional tensions, with potential for either a temporary agreement or a shift towards military options if core disagreements persist [10]

Core Viewpoint - TAL Education (TAL) shows potential for significant upside, with a mean price target of $15.85 indicating a 44.6% increase from its current price of $10.96 [1] Price Targets - The average price target consists of seven estimates ranging from a low of $11.54 to a high of $18.00, with a standard deviation of $2.19, suggesting variability in analyst predictions [2] - The lowest estimate indicates a 5.3% increase, while the highest suggests a 64.2% upside [2] - A low standard deviation indicates a higher agreement among analysts regarding price movement [2][9] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts are increasingly optimistic about TAL's earnings prospects, as evidenced by a trend of upward revisions in EPS estimates [11] - Over the past 30 days, three estimates have been revised higher, leading to a 42.5% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year [12] - TAL holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors [13] Caution on Price Targets - Solely relying on consensus price targets for investment decisions may not be prudent, as analysts' ability to set accurate targets has been questioned [3][7] - Analysts often set optimistic targets due to business incentives, which can lead to inflated price expectations [8] - While price targets should not be ignored, they should be approached with skepticism and not be the sole basis for investment decisions [10]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.76% at 49,174.5 points, the S&P 500 up 0.77% at 6,890.07 points, and the Nasdaq up 1.04% at 22,863.68 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with AMD increasing over 8%, Intel over 5%, and Tesla, Netflix, and Apple each rising over 2% [1] Chinese Stocks - Most Chinese stocks saw gains, with Global Data up over 6%, Century Internet over 6%, and XPeng Motors over 6% [1] - Declines were noted in companies like Hesai Technology, which fell over 2%, and Zai Lab, which dropped over 1% [1] European Market - European indices had mixed results, with Germany's DAX down 0.02% at 24,986.25 points, France's CAC40 up 0.26% at 8,519.21 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.04% at 10,680.59 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures showed mixed results, with COMEX gold futures down 1.25% at $5,160.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.57% at $87.07 per ounce [1] - Crude oil prices fell slightly, with the main U.S. oil contract down 0.35% at $66.08 per barrel and Brent oil down 0.06% at $71.07 per barrel [1] Currency and Debt Markets - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.17% to 97.90, while the offshore RMB against the dollar increased by 95 basis points to 6.8798 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield up 2.73 basis points at 3.461% and the 10-year yield down 0.38 basis points at 4.031% [1] - European bond yields collectively fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 0.9 basis points at 4.304% and Germany's 10-year yield down 0.4 basis points at 2.705% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global financial markets are affected by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions, tariff policies, and corporate earnings, leading to significant fluctuations in various asset classes. For example, the US stock market declined due to Trump's tariff plan and EU's suspension of the trade - agreement approval, while the precious metals market rose due to increased risk - aversion [5][6]. - The energy market is influenced by the Iran - US nuclear negotiation, with expectations of increased Iranian oil supply putting downward pressure on oil prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - **Stock Markets**: US major indices (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) fell, with IBM and American Express leading the decline. European indices (DAX, CAC40, FTSE 100) also closed lower. The reasons include Trump's tariff plan and EU's suspension of trade - agreement approval [5]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold and silver futures rose due to increased risk - aversion from geopolitical tensions, tariff policy changes, and other factors [6]. - **Energy**: US crude oil and Brent oil futures fell as the Iran - US nuclear negotiation showed signs of progress, increasing the expectation of more Iranian oil supply [7]. - **Base Metals**: Most London base metals declined, except for LME tin which rose [7]. Important News Macro News - Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for European routes dropped 2.1%. The US will stop collecting certain illegal tariffs. There is still a risk of US military strikes against Iran. India postponed a trade delegation plan. China is assessing the impact of US tariff rulings and urges the US to cancel unilateral tariffs. The EU suspended the approval of a trade agreement with the US. The Trump administration is considering new "national security tariffs" [9][11]. Energy Futures - Saudi Aramco sold condensate oil. Methanol supply in Southeast Asia is restricted due to planned maintenance. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have different forecasts for oil prices, with Goldman Sachs raising price forecasts for Q4 2026 and 2027, and Morgan Stanley expecting a short - term increase followed by a decline [14][16][18]. Metal Futures - The US energy storage market is expected to grow 21%. Lebanon may sell part of its gold reserves. UBS is positive on gold, with a target price of $6200/ounce [20][21]. Black - Series Futures - China's iron ore arrivals decreased, but global iron ore shipments increased. Vietnam plans to build a large - scale steel plant. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of Chinese pig - iron enterprises decreased, and inventory increased [23][25]. Agricultural Products Futures - Malaysian palm oil production and exports decreased in February. Argentina's soybean moisture conditions improved, and the production forecast remains unchanged [27][28]. Financial Markets Financial - 143 companies have submitted IPO applications in the Hong Kong stock market in 2026. Deloitte predicts a better performance in the Hong Kong IPO market this year [30]. Industry - Payment transactions on Chinese New Year's Eve increased. The real - estate market may show more stabilization signals. China's AI governance system is maturing [31]. Overseas - The US may adjust tariff application methods and continue steel - aluminum tariffs. The Fed has about 75 basis - points to reach the neutral rate. India plans to invest $200 billion in AI. The Australian central bank may tighten policy. UK unemployment reached a new high [32][34][35]. International Stock Markets - US and European stock markets rose, while the Japanese market fell. High - end companies made significant stock - position adjustments. The UK may adjust accounting rules to attract Chinese companies. Australia simplifies corporate governance rules. Some companies announced major transactions or reported good earnings [36][38][41]. Commodities - Precious metals, oil, and most base metals futures fell due to factors such as progress in the Iran - US nuclear negotiation and reduced risk - aversion [43]. Bonds - US Treasury yields had mixed changes. Japanese bonds rose, and the 2029 fiscal - year bond issuance may increase [45]. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index rose slightly, and most non - US currencies fell [46]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - **Economic Data**: Include Japan's trade balance, UK's inflation and housing - price index, US's new - home construction, and other data [48]. - **Events**: New Zealand's central - bank rate decision, European Central Bank officials' speeches, and the Fed's release of meeting minutes [50]. - **Market Closures**: Chinese, South Korean, and Vietnamese stock markets are closed due to the Spring Festival [52].

Group 1 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 0.10% on February 18 [1] - Individual stocks showed mixed performance, with Hesai Technology rising nearly 4% and Huazhu Group increasing by nearly 3% [1] - ZTO Express saw an increase of over 2%, while TAL Education and Tencent Music both dropped by over 3% [1] Group 2 - Kingsoft Cloud and Beike both experienced declines of over 2% [1]