AIA(01299) 华创证券·2024-04-30 04:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 90 HKD [14][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high in new business value (NBV) of 1.327 billion USD in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 31%. The NBV margin improved by 2.1 percentage points to 54.2% [14][20]. - The company announced an increase of 2 billion USD to its existing 10 billion USD share buyback program, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [14][20]. - The report highlights strong performance across various channels, with agent channels growing NBV by 20% and partner distribution channels increasing by 70% [14][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported a new business value of 1.327 billion USD, up 31% year-on-year, with an annualized new premium growth of 26% to 2.449 billion USD [14][20]. - The NBV margin for AIA China rose from 52.7% in H2 2023 to 54.6% in Q1 2024, while AIA Hong Kong saw an increase from 58.1% to 64.3% [14][20]. - Key Southeast Asian markets, including Thailand and Malaysia, also reported double-digit growth in NBV, with Thailand maintaining a NBV margin exceeding 90% [14][20]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to return 75% of its annual free surplus as dividends and share buybacks starting in 2024, with a reference free surplus of 3.9 billion USD for 2023 [14][20]. - As of April 25, 2024, the company had repurchased shares worth approximately 8.169 billion USD, accounting for 68.1% of the total buyback amount [14][20]. Earnings Forecast - The report slightly adjusts the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to 0.40, 0.44, and 0.47 USD, respectively, while maintaining a P/EV valuation of 1.7x [14][20].