Muyuan Foods (002714) 申万宏源·2024-04-30 05:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2024 was under pressure due to low pig prices, but the optimization of breeding performance is expected to drive cost reductions [2] - The company achieved a year-on-year increase in pig sales volume in 2023 and Q1 2024, but the low pig prices led to significant losses [6] - The company's breeding cost per kilogram decreased in 2023, and further reductions are expected in 2024 due to improved disease control and lower feed costs [6] - The company has ample production capacity and plans to increase pig sales volume in 2024 [6] - The slaughtering business is expanding, with potential for profitability in 2024 [6] Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 110,861 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.19%, and a net loss of 4,263 million yuan [6] - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 26,272 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.57%, and a net loss of 2,379 million yuan [6] - The company's gross profit margin was 3.1% in 2023 and -2.5% in Q1 2024 [7] - The company's ROE was -6.8% in 2023 and -3.9% in Q1 2024 [7] - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 18X in 2024, 10X in 2025, and 13X in 2026 [7] Operational Highlights - The company sold 63.816 million pigs in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and 16.011 million pigs in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.6% [6] - The average price of pigs in 2023 was 15.00 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 19.27%, and in Q1 2024, it was 14.51 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 3.03% [6] - The company's breeding cost per kilogram was 15 yuan/kg in 2023, down from 15.7 yuan/kg in 2022, and is expected to reach 14 yuan/kg in 2024 [6] - The company's production capacity at the end of 2023 was approximately 80 million pigs per year, with 3.142 million breeding sows at the end of Q1 2024 [6] - The company plans to sell 66-72 million pigs in 2024 [6] Slaughtering Business - The company slaughtered 13.26 million pigs in 2023, an 80% year-on-year increase, with a loss per pig reduced to around 70 yuan [6] - By the end of Q1 2024, the company had 10 slaughterhouses in operation, with a total capacity of 29 million pigs per year [6] - The slaughtering business is expected to achieve profitability in 2024 through improved operational efficiency and optimized product and customer structures [6]