Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 19.85, corresponding to a 2024 PE of 13.51x and a PB of 0.93x [3][4]. Core Views - The company's investment net income has declined, leading to pressure on performance. However, the acceleration of supply-side reforms in the industry is expected to enhance the company's growth prospects through improved capital efficiency and specialized business advantages, potentially achieving better-than-expected growth through organic growth and external mergers and acquisitions [3][6]. Financial Summary - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 38.74 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 12.39 billion, reflecting a year-on-year change of -37.61% and -45.13% respectively. The weighted average ROE decreased by 1.29 percentage points to 1.21%, indicating performance below expectations [3][6]. - The investment business net income fell by 48.95% year-on-year to RMB 18.47 billion, accounting for -75.85% of the adjusted revenue increment. This decline was primarily due to a decrease in investment yield and a contraction in the scale of off-exchange derivatives and other businesses, with financial assets down 7.99% year-on-year to RMB 320.22 billion [3][6]. - The company maintains its earnings forecast for 2024-2026, projecting EPS of RMB 1.33, RMB 1.50, and RMB 1.63 respectively [3][6]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates that the acceleration of supply-side reforms in the industry will enhance the company's capital efficiency, allowing it to consolidate its specialized business advantages. The wealth management business is expected to continue improving asset allocation and advisory service capabilities, while the investment banking sector is innovating fixed-income products and enhancing merger and acquisition service capabilities [3][6].
中金公司2024年一季报点评：投资业绩承压，供给侧改革提速助推发展