日本食饮深度报告系列之二：新型酒饮逆势增长，出海拓展新版图

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Japanese food and beverage industry [3]. Core Insights - The Japanese alcoholic beverage industry can be divided into three phases: 1963-1994 saw growth driven by post-war economic expansion; 1995-2002 experienced stabilization and rational consumption; from 2003 to present, the market has contracted due to aging population and health trends, alongside the rise of new alcoholic beverages [1][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Alcoholic Beverage Consumption - From 1980 to 1990, Japan's annual alcohol consumption surged from 6.66 billion liters to 9.04 billion liters due to economic prosperity [10]. - Post-1990, the economic bubble burst led to a decline in consumption, with 2020 consumption at 7.828 billion liters, down 18.21% from 1994 [13]. 2. Industry Trends - The alcoholic beverage market has seen a shift towards low-alcohol and innovative flavored beverages, with the share of high-alcohol beverages dropping from 46.2% in 1963 to 26.1% in 2023, while low-alcohol and innovative beverages rose from 53.8% to 73.8% [4][27]. - The RTD (Ready-to-Drink) segment has shown resilience and growth amidst overall market contraction [16]. 3. Structural Changes in the Industry - Beer consumption peaked in the mid-1990s, with a decline attributed to demographic shifts and health consciousness [18][21]. - Sake revenue grew at a CAGR of 8.59% from 1963 to 1975, but faced challenges from product homogenization and competition from shochu [24]. - Shochu sales surged by 45% in 1984, driven by its cost-effectiveness and appeal to younger consumers [3][26]. 4. International Expansion and Profitability - Major beer companies like Asahi, Sapporo, and Kirin have expanded overseas, with Asahi's European revenue growing from JPY 411.1 billion in 2020 to JPY 687.6 billion in 2023, a CAGR of 18.7% [5]. - From 2010 to 2023, Asahi's overseas revenue share increased from 6.6% to 51.1%, with overseas operating profit margins surpassing domestic margins [5][30]. 5. Japanese Whisky Market - Japanese whisky exports grew from JPY 1.7 billion in 2000 to JPY 50.1 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 15.64% [3][30]. - The "Highball Revival Plan" launched by Suntory in 2008 targeted younger consumers, boosting sales and enhancing the global reputation of Japanese whisky [3][30].