Q1高基数下增长暂时承压，渠道结构持续优化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [36][38]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 37.4 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.5%, and turned a profit with a net income of 3.9 billion yuan, a significant turnaround from previous losses [36][38]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.3 billion yuan, down 8.2% year-on-year, and a net income of 0.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.8% year-on-year, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year [36][38]. - The company continues to expand its dealer network, with over 36,000 dealers by the end of 2023, a 50% increase year-on-year, and aims to add 20,000 dealers from 2024 to 2026 [2][7][38]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue from the dealer channel reached 9.8 billion yuan in 2023, growing by 11.9% year-on-year, while the bulk channel generated 25.5 billion yuan, up 17.0% year-on-year [2][5]. - The gross margin improved to 26% in 2023, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 2023 gross margin at 29.1%, up 11 percentage points year-on-year [11][36]. - The company forecasts EPS of 2.52 yuan, 2.82 yuan, and 3.14 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9, 8, and 7 [6][38]. Product Performance - Revenue from composite doors, cabinets, and other products reached 21.7 billion yuan (+8.6%), 8.3 billion yuan (+22.7%), and 2.3 billion yuan (+11.8%), respectively, with cabinet products showing significant growth [5][6]. - The production and sales volume of laminated doors and solid composite doors increased by 13.4% and 11.5%, respectively, indicating strong demand for the company's main products [5][6]. Financial Forecast - The company expects to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 40.29 billion yuan in 2024, 44.77 billion yuan in 2025, and 49.60 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 7.79%, 11.11%, and 10.78%, respectively [6][8]. - The net profit is projected to reach 447.14 million yuan in 2024, 499.02 million yuan in 2025, and 555.63 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 14.67%, 11.60%, and 11.34%, respectively [6][8].