KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-04-30 08:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Vanke A (000002.SZ) is maintained at "Buy" [5][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 61.59 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.36 billion yuan due to declining settlement scale and gross margin in real estate development [5]. - The company is facing short-term performance pressure but remains among the top in sales scale and has ample land reserves. The diversified business model is expected to improve performance as the industry recovers [5]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 10.26 billion, 11.61 billion, and 12.13 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.86, 0.97, and 1.02 yuan [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the development business revenue was 46.67 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 10.5%, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points [6]. - The sales area and amount in March were 1.656 million square meters and 24.51 billion yuan, down 37.4% and 42.5% year-on-year, respectively [6]. - The company’s operating service business contributed 10.95 billion yuan in revenue, up 12.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 18.9%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points [6]. Cash Flow and Financing - The company has taken multiple measures to enhance cash reserves, ensuring operational safety. In Q1, it received 4.2 billion yuan from bulk asset transactions and raised 3.26 billion yuan through a REIT [6]. - As of the end of Q1 2024, the company had 83.07 billion yuan in cash, sufficient to cover interest-bearing liabilities due within one year [6].