2024年一季度宏观经济及大类资产配置分析与展望：GDP增速超预期但供需失衡加剧，关注大类资产配置的结构性机会

Economic Performance - In Q1 2024, GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9% and up 1.6% quarter-on-quarter[2][6][15] - The contribution of the secondary industry to GDP growth was 41.6%, with industrial production significantly accelerating, contributing 2 percentage points to GDP growth[6][15] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 73.7% to GDP growth, although this was a decrease of 6.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter[6][15] Industrial and Investment Trends - Industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 7.5%[12][70] - Manufacturing investment rose by 9.9% year-on-year, driven by equipment updates and policy support, with specific sectors like general equipment manufacturing seeing growth rates of 13.9%[70][59] - Infrastructure investment grew by 8.8% year-on-year, continuing to provide a stabilizing effect on the economy[62][59] Market and Asset Allocation Insights - The bond market saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching its lowest level since May 2002[23][3] - Stock market performance was mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell[23][3] - Commodity performance varied, with gold and oil prices showing significant increases, indicating a preference for safe-haven assets[23][3]