宏观专题：从历史上降息复盘看美联储货币政策周期

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points (BP) within the year, with the first cut likely occurring in the second half of the year[23] - The current economic environment suggests a "preventive rate cut" approach, as the labor market remains strong, supporting high consumer growth[23] - Historical patterns indicate that rate cuts typically occur when inflation is below the Fed's 2% target, which is currently not the case[23] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with no immediate crisis risks, supported by strong labor market conditions[23] - The combination of the Kitchin, Juglar, and Kuznets cycles indicates sufficient long-term economic growth momentum[23] - Inflation remains sticky, and conditions for rate cuts are not yet fully mature, leading to uncertainty in the Fed's rate cut path[23] Group 3: Historical Context - The Fed has experienced eight rate cut cycles since 1970, categorized into "emergency cuts" and "preventive cuts" based on economic conditions[23] - Emergency cuts often follow significant external shocks, while preventive cuts occur in stable economic environments to mitigate potential risks[23] - The last preventive cut occurred in 2019, where the Fed reduced rates by 225 BP in response to global economic slowdowns and trade uncertainties[23]