大类资产每月观察

Economic Overview - US April economic data remains strong but shows signs of marginal cooling, with market expectations for interest rate cuts shifting slightly, raising the probability of a cut in July to 29%[31] - Domestic economic data in April continues to show weakness, with monetary demand and real economy indicators under pressure, although new policies are stimulating macro expectations[2] Market Trends - The stock-bond risk premium recorded 3.65%, down 0.12% from last month, indicating a high level of risk aversion in the market[6] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased slightly from 4.63% to 4.64%, while the 2-year yield rose from 5.1% to 5.14%, reflecting a deepening yield curve inversion[31] Monetary Supply and Demand - In April, the total issuance of government bonds was 1,056.96 billion CNY, with maturities totaling 1,088.18 billion CNY, resulting in a net monetary supply of 31.22 billion CNY[50] - The central bank's OMO reverse repos totaled 880 billion CNY due, with a net withdrawal of 840 billion CNY, indicating a tightening of monetary supply[78] Real Estate and Manufacturing - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 2.208 million square meters, showing a seasonal rebound but down 18.2% compared to the same period in 2019[54] - Manufacturing capacity utilization rates show divergence, with steel mill utilization rebounding by 2.8%, while asphalt utilization dropped significantly by 6.6%[86] Commodity Insights - Commodity prices are expected to show strong fluctuations, with industrial products likely to experience a short-term correction due to overbought conditions, while agricultural products may face upward price risks due to supply shortages[36] - The inventory of major steel products continues to decline, remaining at a low level compared to historical averages, indicating potential upward pressure on prices[87]