策略专题研究：美国1930s：脱虚向实与百年之变

Group 1 - The report highlights that during the period of economic expansion in the 1920s, the U.S. experienced significant growth driven by private sector leverage, with household debt increasing by 130% from $18 billion to $42 billion, and total debt as a percentage of tangible assets rising from 17.1% to 26.6% [49][57] - The manufacturing sector's output accounted for over 25% of the U.S. GDP by 1929, with a cumulative growth of over 90% in manufacturing output from 1921 to 1929, reflecting an annual growth rate of 8.5% [56][57] - The report notes that the stock market bubble burst in 1929, leading to a significant decline in financial asset prices, which in turn deteriorated the balance sheets of the private sector, prompting a deleveraging process [34][49] Group 2 - In the mid-1930s, the U.S. government became the main driver of economic recovery by increasing government spending and debt, with federal expenditures rising from $4.27 billion in 1932 to $9.17 billion in 1936, and federal debt expanding from $19.5 billion to $33.8 billion during the same period [43][44] - The report emphasizes that the government’s intervention through infrastructure spending not only alleviated overcapacity in industries like steel but also created numerous job opportunities, thereby stabilizing income expectations [43][44] - The analysis indicates that the capital return rates for businesses were lower during the recovery phase compared to the 1920s, suggesting a shift in focus from consumption stimulation to creating stronger supply through government-led initiatives [49][56]