NHD(SZ:002946) Guolian Securities·2024-04-30 16:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.89 CNY, based on a 2024 PE of 20.03 times [13]. Core Insights - The company has optimized its product structure, leading to improved profitability [2]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 10.987 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 431 million CNY, up 19.27% year-on-year [9]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 26.87%, an increase of 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.38% in Q1 2024, up 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2022: 10,006 - 2023: 10,987 - 2024E: 12,067 - 2025E: 13,097 - 2026E: 14,106 - Revenue Growth Rate (%): - 2022: 11.59% - 2023: 9.80% - 2024E: 9.83% - 2025E: 8.53% - 2026E: 7.71% [3][4]. - Net Profit (in million CNY): - 2022: 361 - 2023: 431 - 2024E: 593 - 2025E: 756 - 2026E: 952 - Net Profit Growth Rate (%): - 2022: 15.68% - 2023: 19.27% - 2024E: 37.74% - 2025E: 27.32% - 2026E: 25.98% [3][4]. Product and Market Performance - The company has seen double-digit growth in low-temperature products, with high-end fresh milk growing nearly 40% year-on-year [12]. - The company’s DTC revenue grew over 15%, with remote e-commerce increasing by over 40% [12]. - New product revenue accounted for 12% of total revenue in 2023, contributing to growth [12].