Ronbay Technology(SH:688005) Soochow Securities·2024-04-30 21:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark in the next six months [1][14]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance was impacted by low capacity utilization and losses from other businesses, but profitability is expected to improve in Q2, with unit profit projected to recover to approximately 0.5 million yuan per ton [3][14]. - Q1 sales volume remained stable year-on-year, with a significant recovery in demand observed in March, leading to an expected year-on-year sales increase of over 40% for the full year [13][14]. - The company has adjusted its 2024 profit forecast downward due to Q1 performance but maintains its 2025-2026 profit projections, expecting net profits of 500 million yuan, 970 million yuan, and 1.33 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [14]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 56% year-on-year and a 10% decrease quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 40 million yuan [7][14]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 was 5%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year and 3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The company’s operating cash flow for Q1 was -1 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline compared to the previous year [8]. Sales and Market Position - The company achieved a sales volume of over 26,000 tons in Q1, maintaining a global market share of over 11% and a domestic market share of over 18% [13]. - The report anticipates that overseas shipments will continue to increase, with expectations of a 30%+ year-on-year increase in shipments for the first half of the year [13]. Profitability Forecast - The report projects a recovery in profitability, with expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 showing growth rates of 13%, 92%, and 38% respectively [14]. - The estimated P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 30x, 16x, and 11x, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [14].