2023年报及2024一季度业绩点评：全面增长势能持续

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 31.93 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.44 billion yuan, up 28.9% year-on-year. In Q1 2024, revenue reached 15.34 billion yuan, a 20.9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.26 billion yuan, up 30.0% year-on-year [2] - The Qinghua series and Glass Fen series both experienced significant growth. In 2023, the company achieved revenues of 20.20 billion yuan and 8.54 billion yuan from mid-to-high-end and other wines, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 22.6% and 20.1%. The Qinghua series alone generated approximately 14.6 billion yuan, accounting for 46% of total revenue [2] - The company is rapidly expanding its market presence, with revenues from domestic and external markets reaching 12.08 billion yuan and 19.66 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 23.7% and 21.6%. The number of distributors increased by 52 and 251, respectively [2] - The company has improved its net profit margin through precise expense allocation, achieving a gross margin of 75.3% in 2023, with a net profit margin of 32.7%. In Q1 2024, the gross margin rose to 77.5%, with a net profit margin of 40.8% [2] - The dividend payout ratio has steadily increased, with a total dividend of 5.33 billion yuan in 2023, representing a payout ratio of 51% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been slightly raised to 10.78 yuan and 13.26 yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 at 15.99 yuan. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios corresponding to the closing price of 262.31 yuan on April 30, 2024, are 24, 20, and 16 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Financial Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 31.93 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of 21.80%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.44 billion yuan, with a profit growth rate of 28.93% [7] - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 38.59 billion yuan, 46.49 billion yuan, and 55.23 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 20.87%, 20.48%, and 18.79% [7] - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 13.16 billion yuan, 16.17 billion yuan, and 19.51 billion yuan, with profit growth rates of 26.03%, 22.93%, and 20.65% [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 75.31% in 2023 to 77.17% in 2026 [7] - The EPS is projected to increase from 8.56 yuan in 2023 to 15.99 yuan in 2026 [7]