AGRICULTURAL BANK OF CHINA(601288) 国信证券·2024-05-01 06:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [4] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2024, but remains in a relatively strong position among large banks [12] - The company has a unique advantage in county-level financial services, with a focus on manufacturing, green finance, and inclusive finance [12] - The board has decided on a mid-term dividend arrangement for 2024, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [12] Financial Forecasts and Key Metrics - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 730,460 in 2024, with a growth rate of 5.1% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 295,190 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [3] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.84 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.93 yuan by 2026 [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.8% in 2024, slightly improving in subsequent years [3] - The dividend payout ratio for the mid-term dividend is expected to be no more than 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2024 [12] Financial Performance Indicators - The company reported total assets of 42.2 trillion yuan at the end of Q1 2024, with a loan balance of 23.9 trillion yuan [12] - The non-performing loan ratio stands at 1.32%, indicating stable asset quality [12] - The capital adequacy ratio is deemed reasonable, with a core Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.37% [12]