白酒板块高股息率标的

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Recommendation" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 33.13 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.02 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year. In Q1 2024, revenue reached 16.26 billion yuan, growing 8.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.06 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is focusing on channel optimization and improving distributor quality due to intense competition in the domestic market. It is also expanding into county and township markets in provinces like Henan and Shandong, while targeting emerging markets for growth [5] - The company's high-end product segment is under pressure, with a 16.6% decline in sales volume in 2023, although the average price per ton increased by 29.5%. The revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor was 28.54 billion yuan and 3.95 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.8% and 20.7% [5] - The company experienced a rise in expense ratios due to delayed digitalization costs, with a gross margin of 75.2% in 2023, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for 2023 and Q1 2024 was 30.2% and 37.3%, respectively [5] - The company has a high dividend yield, with cash dividends of 7.02 billion yuan in 2023, resulting in a payout ratio of 70.1% and a dividend yield of 4.9% based on the latest closing price [5] Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 7.03 yuan, 7.51 yuan, and 8.23 yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are 14, 13, and 12 times [5][6] - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is 35.42 billion yuan, 38.14 billion yuan, and 41.30 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.93%, 7.67%, and 8.30% respectively [6][7] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 10.59 billion yuan, 11.31 billion yuan, and 12.40 billion yuan, with profit growth rates of 5.72%, 6.79%, and 9.69% respectively [6][7]