PAIKE(SH:605123) Minsheng Securities·2024-05-02 02:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.62 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-over-year increase of 30.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 490 million yuan, up 1.3% year-over-year [4] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 750 million yuan, a decrease of 20.6% year-over-year, with a net profit of 73 million yuan, down 49.4% year-over-year [4] - The decline in Q1 2024 performance is attributed to reduced deliveries in the aerospace and petrochemical sectors [4] - The company is a leading player in the aerospace forging segment in China and is expected to benefit from high demand in aerospace and new energy sectors during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company experienced stable revenue growth primarily due to increases in the power and petrochemical forging businesses. The revenue for 2023 was 3.62 billion yuan, with a net profit of 490 million yuan [4] - The Q1 2024 results showed a significant decline in revenue and net profit compared to the previous year, with revenue at 750 million yuan and net profit at 73 million yuan [4] - The gross margin for 2023 decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 23.9%, while the net margin fell by 3.9 percentage points to 13.6% [4] Product Segmentation - In 2023, the revenue from aerospace forgings was 1.13 billion yuan, up 13.3% year-over-year, while petrochemical forgings generated 930 million yuan, a 20.7% increase year-over-year. Power forgings saw a remarkable growth of 115%, reaching 860 million yuan [4] - The increase in low-margin power forging products contributed to the overall decline in gross margin [4] Research and Development - The company has increased its R&D investment, with R&D expenses rising by 43.2% to 180 million yuan in 2023, representing a 4.9% R&D expense ratio [4] - The company is actively preparing for production to meet strong demand across multiple sectors [4] Future Outlook - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 550 million yuan, 720 million yuan, and 940 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14x, 11x, and 8x [4] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the high demand in the aerospace and new energy sectors during the upcoming years [4]