5月美联储议息会议解读：缩表放缓，降息还有多远？

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is experiencing a steady expansion, but growth is expected to slow down due to high interest rates and reduced consumer spending[15] - The labor market remains strong, with unemployment rates not expected to rise significantly in the short term, supported by demand in sectors like government and healthcare[19] Inflation and Interest Rates - Core inflation is still on a downward trend, but short-term fluctuations are anticipated due to energy prices, with inflation expected to remain within a range for the coming months[19] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain high interest rates, with the first potential rate cut expected in Q3 2024, as market expectations have shifted to a later timeline[3][12] Banking Sector Risks - Recent failures of regional banks indicate emerging pressures within the banking sector, raising concerns about potential risks that could lead the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts[1][15] - High credit card loan rates are at historical highs, which may suppress consumer spending and business investment in the near term[19] Investment Trends - Despite a high-interest environment, investment is expected to continue growing due to factors like manufacturing reshoring and a recovering real estate market[1] - However, corporate investment enthusiasm may be dampened in the short term due to elevated borrowing costs[3]