YUM CHINA-2024年一季报点评：1Q业绩符合预期，高回购分红回馈股东

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Recommend" rating [2][3] Core Views - 1Q 2024 revenue was $2.96 billion, yoy+1% (excluding currency impact, yoy+7%) [1] - Net profit was$ 287 million, yoy-1% (excluding currency impact, yoy+5%) [1] - Adjusted net profit was $287 million, yoy-2% (excluding currency impact, yoy+4%) [1] - System sales grew by 6% in 1Q, driven by an 8% net increase in new stores [1] - KFC system sales increased by 7%, with revenue of$ 2.23 billion (yoy+1%, excluding currency impact, yoy+7%) [1] - Pizza Hut system sales grew by 4%, with revenue of $595 million (flat yoy, excluding currency impact, yoy+5%) [1] - Same-store sales declined by 3%, with KFC and Pizza Hut same-store sales down by 2% and 5% respectively [1] - Restaurant operating margin was 17.6%, down 2.7 percentage points yoy [1] - KFC restaurant operating margin was 19.3%, down 2.9 percentage points yoy [1] - Pizza Hut restaurant operating margin was 12.5%, down 1.7 percentage points yoy [1] Development and Shareholder Returns - Net addition of 378 stores in 1Q, with KFC and Pizza Hut adding 307 and 113 stores respectively [2] - Total store count reached 15,022 by the end of 1Q 2024, with KFC and Pizza Hut accounting for 10,603 and 3,425 stores respectively [2] - Share buybacks and cash dividends reached$ 745 million in 1Q, a record high for a single quarter [2] - Full-year 2024 development plan remains unchanged, targeting net store additions of 1,500-1,700 and capital expenditure of $700-850 million [2] - Plans to return approximately$ 1.5 billion to shareholders through quarterly cash dividends and share buybacks in 2024 [2] Financial Forecasts - Forecasted revenue for 2024-2026: $11.6 billion,$ 12.852 billion, and $13.938 billion respectively [3] - Forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026:$ 829 million, $940 million, and$ 1.047 billion respectively [3] - Forecasted EPS for 2024-2026: $2.12,$ 2.41, and $2.68 respectively [3] - P/E ratios for 2024-2026: 18x, 16x, and 14x respectively [3] Operational Metrics - Gross margin for 2024-2026: 19.73%, 20.20%, and 20.68% respectively [6] - Net margin for 2024-2026: 7.15%, 7.32%, and 7.51% respectively [6] - ROE for 2024-2026: 12.91%, 13.25%, and 13.26% respectively [6] - ROIC for 2024-2026: 10.34%, 10.84%, and 10.98% respectively [6]