四川双马2023年报及2024年一季报点评：业绩报酬助23年增长，投资亏损拖累Q1业绩

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sichuan Shuangma (000935) with a target price adjusted to 24.30 CNY, corresponding to an 18x P/E for 2024 [1][2]. Core Views - The main driver for the company's performance growth in 2023 is the release of performance fees, while the decline in performance in Q1 2024 is primarily due to investment losses. Future performance is expected to accelerate as new fund sizes increase and old fund projects exit [1][2]. - The company has confirmed performance fees and increased management fee income, with private equity business revenue showing significant growth [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Adjusted revenue for 2023 is 11.5 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of +2.2% and net profit of 0.09 billion CNY, down -73% year-on-year, which is below expectations [1][2]. - The forecast for net profit for 2024 is 2.1 billion CNY, with EPS estimates of 1.35 CNY, 2.02 CNY, and 2.44 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The company plans to repurchase shares worth no less than 50 million CNY, reflecting confidence in its future performance. The ongoing fundraising for new funds and gradual exit from old funds are expected to accelerate performance fee realization [1][2]. - The private equity business revenue increased by +70.52% year-on-year, contributing significantly to revenue growth [1][2]. Market Position - The company operates in the comprehensive financial services sector, primarily engaged in cement production and sales, private equity investment management, and youth football training [2][3]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 11.314 billion CNY, with a 52-week price range of 14.46-18.87 CNY [1][2].