BIEM(SZ:002832) Guoxin Securities·2024-05-03 04:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][22]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue growth of 22.6% in 2023, reaching 3.54 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 25.2%, amounting to 910 million yuan. The growth was driven by direct sales channels, with direct sales, franchise, and online revenues changing by +35%, -2%, and +16% respectively [1][2]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported a net profit growth of 20.4% to 360 million yuan, with revenue increasing by 17.6% to 1.27 billion yuan. The gross profit margin slightly improved, while the net profit margin increased by 0.7 percentage points to 28.5% [1][2]. - The company has shown significant improvement in inventory turnover, with a reduction of 42 days in inventory turnover days by the end of 2023, and a further reduction of 40 days in Q1 2024, indicating healthier inventory management [1][2]. - The company maintained a net increase in stores, adding 28 direct stores and 36 franchise stores, totaling 607 and 648 stores respectively by the end of 2023 [1][2]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 4.199 billion yuan, 4.903 billion yuan, and 5.657 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18.7%, 16.8%, and 15.4% respectively [2][18]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.127 billion yuan, 1.340 billion yuan, and 1.569 billion yuan, with growth rates of 23.8%, 18.9%, and 17.0% respectively [2][18]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.97 yuan, 2.35 yuan, and 2.75 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][18]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to 37.5-39.5 yuan, down from the previous 41.0-43.1 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19-20x for 2024 [1][17]. - The company’s current market capitalization is approximately 17.036 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 11.624 billion yuan [4].