GF SECURITIES·2024-05-03 07:32Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [4][2]. Core Views - In Q1 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 64% quarter-on-quarter to 2.1 billion RMB, which is in line with expectations. The company achieved a revenue of 46.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 553% year-on-year but decreased by 64% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. - The copper and cobalt production in Q1 2024 exceeded expectations, with a quarter-on-quarter increase anticipated in Q2 due to the full production capacity of TFM. The production volumes for copper, cobalt, tungsten, and molybdenum in Q1 2024 were 147,500 tons, 25,202 tons, 1,921 tons, and 3,474 tons, respectively, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 16% and 38% for copper and cobalt [2][3]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 0.58, 0.64, and 0.68 RMB per share, respectively, and assigns a 20x PE valuation for 2024, leading to a target price of 11.56 RMB per share for A shares and 9.51 HKD per share for H shares [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 172.99 billion RMB in 2022, with a projected increase to 205.63 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 10.4% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 6.07 billion RMB in 2022 to 12.49 billion RMB in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 51.4% [3]. - The company's EBITDA is projected to increase from 17.14 billion RMB in 2022 to 26.73 billion RMB in 2024 [3].