Minsheng Securities·2024-05-04 04:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with an expected EPS of 0.56, 0.60, and 0.68 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 16X, 15X, and 13X based on the latest stock price [2][23][27]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2024 revenue of 46.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.07 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 553% [1][7][31]. - Copper and cobalt production exceeded expectations, with Q1 2024 copper and cobalt output increasing by 123% and 392% year-on-year, reaching 147,000 tons and 25,000 tons respectively [1][16][23]. - The company aims to achieve a copper production target of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons and cobalt production of 90,000 to 100,000 tons by 2028, with significant contributions expected from the TFM and KFM projects [23][26]. Summary by Sections Q1 2024 Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 46.12 billion yuan in Q1 2024, with a net profit of 2.07 billion yuan, marking a 553% increase year-on-year and a 64.3% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1][7][31]. - The significant year-on-year profit growth was attributed to a 41 billion yuan increase in gross profit [1][11]. Production and Sales - Q1 2024 copper and cobalt production reached 147,000 tons and 25,000 tons, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 123% and 392% [1][16][23]. - The actual copper sales volume was 126,000 tons, down from the previous quarter due to inventory adjustments [1][11]. Price Trends - In Q1 2024, copper and cobalt prices were reported at 8,438 USD/ton and 13.5 USD/pound, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.5% and 20.5% respectively [1][18][19]. Future Outlook - The company has set a production guidance for 2024 of 520,000 to 570,000 tons of copper and 60,000 to 70,000 tons of cobalt, with a focus on expanding production capacity in Africa [1][23][26]. - The five-year development goal includes achieving annual copper production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons and cobalt production of 90,000 to 100,000 tons [23][26].