GUOMAO REDUCER(603915) 光大证券·2024-05-04 07:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved an operating revenue of 2.66 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 400 million yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year. However, operating cash flow increased by 51.6% to 530 million yuan [1] - The company expects to benefit from the recovery in the general automation industry and the industrialization of humanoid robots, maintaining a "Buy" rating despite a weak downstream demand forecast [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a total operating revenue of 2.66 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 26.0%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 14.8%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2024, the company recorded an operating revenue of 590 million yuan, a decline of 6.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 60 million yuan, down 19.6% year-on-year [1] Product Line Development - The company sold approximately 654,500 gear reducers in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 7.64%. The revenue from gear reducers was 2.05 billion yuan, up 2.2% year-on-year, while the revenue from cycloidal pinwheel reducers was 380 million yuan, down 10.9% [1] - Domestic revenue was 2.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, while overseas revenue increased by 20.2% to 20 million yuan [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is upgrading its production capacity with a new factory covering 60,000 square meters, focusing on expanding its product lines in injection molding machines and photovoltaic film production equipment [1] - The company plans to acquire 65% of Moduli Transmission to quickly enter the precision planetary reducer market [1] Future Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 490 million yuan and 560 million yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with a new estimate of 650 million yuan for 2026 [1]