Minsheng Securities·2024-05-04 08:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 9.98, corresponding to a PE ratio of 12/8/6 for the years 2024-2026 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a total wholesale volume of 153,000 vehicles in April 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.9% and a month-on-month increase of 1.6%. Cumulatively, from January to April, the total volume reached 629,000 vehicles, up 46.9% year-on-year [2]. - The performance of new energy vehicles (NEVs) was particularly strong, with April sales reaching 51,428 units, a year-on-year increase of 72.1% and a month-on-month increase of 14.8%. The penetration rate for NEVs was 33.6% [2]. - The company is experiencing robust demand recovery, driven by new product launches such as the refreshed Zeekr 001 and Zeekr 007, which contributed to the strong sales figures [2]. - The company is expanding its global market presence, with April export sales reaching 38,151 units, accounting for 24.9% of total sales, and showing a year-on-year increase of 66.3% [2]. - The product cycle for the company remains strong, with several new models set to launch in the second half of 2024, including the Zeekr MIX and Lynk & Co 07, which are expected to drive further sales growth [2]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 224.8 billion, RMB 268.7 billion, and RMB 298.8 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits projected at RMB 7.43 billion, RMB 11.61 billion, and RMB 15.01 billion for the same years [3][13]. - The expected EPS for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 is RMB 0.74, RMB 1.15, and RMB 1.49, respectively [3][13]. - The report indicates a steady growth rate in revenue and net profit, with growth rates of 21.1%, 25.4%, 19.5%, and 11.2% for revenue from 2024 to 2026, and 40.0%, 56.3%, and 29.3% for net profit during the same period [3][13].