Keshun(SZ:300737) Tianfeng Securities·2024-05-05 01:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [3][12][13]. Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in net profit due to high impairment losses in 2023, but there are expectations for marginal improvement in 2024 as market conditions stabilize [9][12]. - The waterproofing materials and construction segments showed steady growth, with a potential for improved profitability due to declining raw material prices [2][10]. - The company has opportunities to enhance its market share in the waterproofing industry, particularly following recent favorable policies in the real estate sector [12][10]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 7,944.39 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of -337.60 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 289.47% [9][24]. - The gross margin for the waterproofing materials segment was 21.2% in 2023, slightly down from the previous year, but there is an expectation for improvement in 2024 due to lower raw material costs [11][10]. - The company's cash flow from operations was 1.92 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 0.43 billion yuan from the previous year, primarily due to increased cash payments for raw material purchases [11][23]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The waterproofing industry remains fragmented, and the company is expected to leverage its channel advantages to increase market share following new regulations [12][10]. - Forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.1 billion yuan, 3.0 billion yuan, and 3.9 billion yuan respectively, indicating a recovery trajectory [12][24]. - The company’s ability to control costs and improve cash flow remains a critical area for future performance enhancement [2][11].