Orient Securities·2024-05-05 01:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank, with a target price of 5.98 CNY per share [1][3]. Core Insights - Net interest income growth has slightly rebounded, while profit growth has seen a decline. As of Q1 2024, the bank's revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders have shown year-on-year growth rates of -0.8%, +0.9%, and -2.6% respectively. The net interest income growth has increased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the end of 2023, supported by active asset deployment, while the narrowing of the net interest margin has been limited [1]. - Both deposits and loans are thriving, with a narrowing decline in net interest margin. The loan growth rate has decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 11.8% in Q1 2024, while deposit growth has increased by 0.7 percentage points to 10.5% [1]. - Asset quality remains stable, with a strong risk compensation ability. The non-performing loan ratio has risen by 1 basis point to 0.84%, and the coverage ratio stands at 327%, indicating sufficient risk compensation capacity [1]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Based on the Q1 2024 financial data, the forecast for net profit growth attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 3.9%, 6.6%, and 10.4% respectively. The EPS is projected to be 0.84, 0.90, and 1.00 CNY, while the BVPS is expected to be 8.54, 9.21, and 9.96 CNY [1][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PB of 0.56X, 0.51X, and 0.48X for 2024, 2025, and 2026. Given the bank's business structure is likely to benefit from economic recovery, a 20% valuation premium compared to peers is suggested, leading to a reasonable value of 5.98 CNY per share [1].