Guoxin Securities·2024-05-05 02:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][12]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2024 was under pressure, with revenue of 86.4 billion yuan (YoY, -4.65%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.1 billion yuan (YoY, -1.96%). The weighted average ROE for the year is 16.08%, a decrease of 2.35 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue is primarily due to a narrowing net interest margin and a decrease in intermediary business income. The net interest income decreased by 6.15% year-on-year, with a net interest margin of 2.02%, down 27 basis points year-on-year [1]. - The company has a strong retail customer base, with 199 million retail customers and managed retail AUM exceeding 13.86 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.02% and 4.02% respectively since the beginning of the year [1]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.92%, down 3 basis points from the previous year [1]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 156.1 billion yuan, 169 billion yuan, and 187.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 6.5%, 8.3%, and 10.8% [1][2]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 6.13 yuan, 6.65 yuan, and 7.37 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][7]. - The total assets are expected to reach 12.021 trillion yuan by 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0% [7].