Haitong Securities·2024-05-05 02:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for China Petroleum (601857) [15][36]. Core Views - The company achieved a historical high in net profit for the first quarter of 2024, with a net profit of 45.681 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [3][7]. - The stable international oil prices have supported the company's profitability, with Brent crude averaging $81.88 per barrel in Q1 2024 [17][22]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 0.92, 0.95, and 0.98 yuan respectively, with a reasonable value range of 10.89-12.57 yuan based on a PB of 1.3-1.5 times [5][36]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 812.184 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [3][7]. - The oil and gas exploration and new energy business generated revenue of 223.119 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year, with operating profit increasing by 4.8% [27][47]. - The sales business segment achieved revenue of 635.210 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, while operating profit decreased by 17.1% due to reduced profits from international trade [4][31]. Business Segment Analysis - Oil and Gas Exploration: The company achieved an oil equivalent production of 464 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with unit operating costs decreasing by 1.8% to $10.38 per barrel [11][47]. - Refining and New Materials: Revenue reached 315.433 billion yuan, a 13.3% increase year-on-year, but operating profit fell by 4.2% due to narrowing refining margins [12][18]. - Natural Gas Sales: Revenue from natural gas sales was 177.917 billion yuan, up 11.0% year-on-year, with operating profit increasing by 21.5% [19][34]. Profitability Forecast - The report projects a stable growth in net profit, with a forecasted net profit of 169 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 4.9% year-on-year increase [6][40]. - The overall gross margin is expected to remain around 22.7% for 2024, with a net profit margin of 5.4% [6][40].