Guotai Junan Securities·2024-05-05 02:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) with a target price of 6.10 CNY, corresponding to a 0.72x PB for 2024 [3][5]. Core Insights - The performance of Postal Savings Bank in Q1 2024 met expectations, showing stable results with double-digit growth in credit and improved deposit structure [3]. - Revenue showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, making it the only state-owned bank to achieve positive revenue growth [3]. - Net interest income increased by 3.1% year-on-year, while non-interest income rose by 16.7%, although net commission income declined by 18.2%, impacting overall revenue [3]. - The bank's loan growth was robust at 11.8% year-on-year, with corporate loans growing by 18.1% and retail loans by 10.5% [3]. - Deposit growth exceeded 10% year-on-year, primarily driven by retail deposits, which now account for 95.5% of total liabilities [3]. - Asset quality showed slight fluctuations, with a 1bp increase in the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and a 20.7 percentage point decrease in the provision coverage ratio [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 347.585 billion CNY, with net profit expected to be 86.384 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 0.13% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 is 0.82 CNY, with projections of 0.84 CNY and 0.89 CNY for 2025 and 2026 respectively [4]. - The bank's net interest margin and cost-to-income ratio are expected to remain competitive, with a net interest margin of 2.24% and a cost-to-income ratio of 59.01% [4][7].