Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (601816) 国海证券·2024-05-05 10:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth in Q1 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 13.06%, driven by a recovery in passenger traffic post-pandemic [4] - The company announced a cash dividend plan, distributing 1.116 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 5.479 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of about 47.5% [2] - The company is expected to benefit from ticket price reforms and an expanded high-speed rail network, enhancing long-term growth potential [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 40.683 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110.40%, and a net profit of 11.546 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [3] - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 10.106 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.963 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 33.11% [3] - The company’s net profit margin for Q1 2024 improved to 29.3%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year [5] Future Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 45.337 billion yuan, 48.620 billion yuan, and 51.176 billion yuan, respectively [6] - Expected net profits for the same years are 13.627 billion yuan, 15.477 billion yuan, and 16.790 billion yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6] - The company is anticipated to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 18, 16, and 15 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6]