降本增效穿越低谷，猪周期反转量价齐升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in performance due to increased depreciation and amortization from investment projects and rising marketing expenses. In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 1.647 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 84 million yuan, down 30.3% year-on-year. The gross margin was 13.0%, down 0.7 percentage points, and the net margin was 5.08%, down 2.1 percentage points. In Q1 2024, revenue was 412 million yuan, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year, while net profit was 20 million yuan, down 13.1% year-on-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1.647 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.71%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 84 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 30.34%. The projected revenues for 2024 to 2026 are 2.390 billion yuan, 2.841 billion yuan, and 3.378 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 45.17%, 18.87%, and 18.89% [4][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 to 2026 are projected to be 0.91 yuan, 1.10 yuan, and 1.26 yuan, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 15, 12, and 11 times [3][4]. Market Trends - The breeding industry is expected to experience a turnaround, with a significant reduction in the number of breeding sows. As of Q1 2024, the national pig inventory was 40.85 million heads, down 5.2% year-on-year, marking a four-year low. The reduction in breeding sows indicates a potential upward trend in pig prices, which is expected to sustain profitability in the sector [2][10]. Capacity Expansion - The company plans to expand its feed production capacity by 145% over the next three years, increasing from the current capacity of 617,000 tons to an additional 900,000 tons. This expansion is anticipated to align with the recovering demand for pig feed as market conditions improve [2][10].