Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328) with a target price of HKD 13.00, based on its unique business model and high return on equity (ROE) [5][6]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit of HKD 5.871 billion in Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 38.3%, primarily due to declines in both underwriting profit and investment income [4][5]. - The overall combined ratio (COR) for Q1 2024 was 97.9%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to heightened claims from natural disasters and increased payout ratios due to the recovery of automobile travel [3][4]. - The report anticipates gradual improvement in performance throughout the year, driven by economic recovery and seasonal factors, with expectations of single-digit growth in premium income [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company achieved original insurance premium income of HKD 173.977 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, with motor insurance premiums up 1.9% and non-motor insurance premiums up 5.0% [3]. - The annualized total investment return rate for Q1 2024 was 3.2%, with total investment income of approximately HKD 4.892 billion, down 34.7% year-on-year due to market volatility affecting equity investments [4]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at HKD 28.244 billion, HKD 31.365 billion, and HKD 33.301 billion, reflecting growth rates of 15%, 11%, and 6% respectively [5][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company's main revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 482.705 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [6]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 is 6.91, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.92 [6]. - The total assets are expected to reach HKD 746.462 billion by 2024, with total liabilities projected at HKD 495.323 billion [11].
短期业绩低点，后续有望逐季改善