中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：42家上市银行一季报：规模、其他非息正贡献，息差和手续费承压

Banking Sector Analysis - The overall revenue of listed banks decreased by 1.9% year-on-year in Q1 2024, with large banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks showing changes of -2.5%, -3.4%, 5.7%, and 4.7% respectively [6] - Net profit for listed banks decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, with large banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks showing changes of -2%, 0%, 7.1%, and 1.2% respectively [6] - City commercial banks maintained the highest growth rate, while large banks (except Bank of Communications) generally saw negative growth due to reduced provision releases [6] - Net interest income decreased by 3% year-on-year, with net interest margin (NIM) down by 22 basis points (bps) compared to a 25 bps decline in 2023 [6] - Non-interest income increased by 1.1% year-on-year, with fee income declining by 10.3% and other non-interest income growing by 22.7% [6] - Asset quality remained stable, with non-performing loan (NPL) ratios, special mention loans, and overdue ratios at historically low levels [6] - The average dividend payout ratio for listed banks in 2023 was 26%, with 26 banks offering a dividend yield above 5% [6] Credit Bond Market Analysis - Credit bond market sentiment was analyzed using price and yield deviations from valuations, with a focus on daily and monthly trading data [7] - On April 22, 2024, credit bond trading was generally stable, but right-skewed price deviations indicated some negative sentiment in the non-financial credit bond market [7] - Industrial bonds showed more positive sentiment compared to urban investment bonds, while perpetual bonds and tier 2 capital bonds performed better [7] - In March 2024, urban investment bond trading sentiment stabilized, with normal trading volume gradually increasing [7] - Industrial bond trading sentiment improved, with high-valuation trading volume slightly declining and low-valuation trading volume showing a fluctuating downward trend [7] - Financial bond trading sentiment fluctuated, with trading volume in the TKN direction increasing and GVN direction decreasing, indicating a warming sentiment [7] Investment Recommendations - The banking sector is recommended for its defensive nature, high dividend yields, and state-owned financial institution attributes [6] - The credit bond market analysis provides a framework for monitoring market sentiment and identifying abnormal trading signals [7]