2023年年报点评：降本增效穿越低谷，猪周期反转量价齐升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [19][21]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the pig farming industry, with both volume and price anticipated to rise as the market stabilizes [3][20]. - The company plans to expand its feed production capacity by 145% over the next three years to meet increasing market demand [3][27]. - Despite a decline in performance in 2023 due to increased costs and lower pig prices, the company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 1.647 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 84 million yuan, down 30.3% [19][21]. - For Q1 2024, revenue was 412 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, while net profit was 20 million yuan, down 13.1% [19][21]. Capacity Expansion - The company currently has a production capacity of 617,000 tons, which will increase to 900,000 tons after the completion of ongoing projects, representing a growth of 145.9% [3][27]. - The new projects include high-end feed production facilities, which are expected to enhance profitability as demand recovers [27]. Market Outlook - The report highlights a significant reduction in the breeding sow population, which is expected to lead to a price increase for pigs, thus improving the profitability of feed sales [20]. - The anticipated recovery in pig prices is expected to positively impact the company's sales structure, particularly in high-priced feed products [20]. Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.91, 1.10, and 1.26 yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 12, and 11 times [21][22]. - The gross margin is expected to show an upward trend, reaching 13.32%, 13.79%, and 13.82% over the same period [27].