XCC(SH:603667) Southwest Securities·2024-05-06 01:32Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 23.40 CNY over the next six months [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.106 billion CNY in 2023, a decrease of 2.95% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 138 million CNY, down 6.49% year-on-year. In Q4 2023, revenue was 589 million CNY, a decline of 14.41% year-on-year, while net profit was 15 million CNY, an increase of 165.22% year-on-year [1][11]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 773 million CNY, a decrease of 4.60% year-on-year, and a net profit of 38 million CNY, down 5.84% year-on-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The comprehensive gross margin for 2023 was 17.54%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for bearings was 18.01%, down 0.03 percentage points, while the automotive parts gross margin was 19.66%, up 1.19 percentage points. The gross margin for thermal management system components was 12.66%, up 0.02 percentage points. In Q1 2024, the gross margin was 16.29%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points year-on-year [2][27]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 4.63%, down 0.33 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin for Q1 2024 was 4.92%, down 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [2][27]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 193 million CNY, 270 million CNY, and 356 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.52 CNY, 0.73 CNY, and 0.96 CNY. The net profit is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37% over the next three years [3][4]. - The revenue for 2024 is forecasted to be 3.106 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 17.12%, followed by 4.368 billion CNY in 2025 and 5.207 billion CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 20.06% and 19.22%, respectively [4][39]. Business Segments - The company operates in three main segments: bearings, automotive parts, and thermal management system components. The bearings segment accounted for over 50% of revenue, while the thermal management system components segment has increased to over 20% [19][42]. - The automotive parts segment achieved a revenue of 430 million CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 9.29%, while the thermal management system components segment reported a revenue of 827 million CNY, down 1.26% year-on-year [12][42]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading player in the domestic bearing industry, with a focus on precision manufacturing technology. It has expanded its product offerings to include automotive safety systems and thermal management system components [19][20]. - The company has established strong customer relationships, with major clients in the automotive and wind energy sectors, including global leaders such as SKF and Schaeffler [19][23][36].